Hong Kong Property Prices Rebound Sharply — Three Major Sources of Capital Behind the Surge from Hong Kong Commercial Daily, April 28 2026 by Mr.Nelson Li.  Dr.Sopon Pornchokchai, President, Agency for Real Estate Affairs (www.area.co.th) had a permission from Mr.Li to disseminate this article.

 

"The world is in turmoil, but Hong Kong remains the safest haven."

Since last year, global capital has been flowing into Hong Kong at an accelerated pace, driving up property prices.

 

The Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) has rebounded nearly 14% from its March 2025 low to last Friday (April 24, 2026). The market commonly describes this housing rally as a "spring market."

 

International investment banks have been raising their forecasts, expecting Hong Kong's residential property prices to rise by 7% to 15% this year. This reflects a steady rebound from the bottom, positioning Hong Kong real estate as a safe haven for global capital allocation.

 

10 Reasons to Buy Hong Kong Property at This Stage

1. Prices have rebounded noticeably but remain relatively low, offering catch-up potential.

2. Falling interest rates have significantly reduced mortgage burdens, making "buying cheaper than renting" a reality again.

3. Influx of capital from mainland China and around the world, driving structural demand.

4. Notable wealth effect from the stock market, with funds spilling over into property.

5. Highly favorable tax environment, ideal for long-term capital preservation.

6. Rising rents, attracting investors with appealing yields.

7. Healthy progress in supply destocking, improving short-to-mid-term supply-demand dynamics.

8. Stable status as an international financial hub, with world-leading rule of law and transparency.

9. Continued policy support, significantly improved market sentiment.

10. Excellent living, education, and medical facilities, suitable for both self-use and family needs.

 

Three Major Capital Sources Fuel the Rebound

What is driving the rebound in Hong Kong's residential market? Three main sources of funds stand out.

 

First, the wealth effect from the stabilization of local Hong Kong stocks. Over the past two years, the Hang Seng Index has rebounded from its lows. Some investors are rotating out of equities into property as a hedge, accelerating the release of purchasing power in the housing market. In 2025, visitor arrivals to Hong Kong recovered to nearly 49.9 million, boosting economic confidence and further supporting market sentiment. Meanwhile, a weakening U.S. dollar has made Hong Kong dollar assets more attractive, bringing back the "buy bricks and mortar to preserve value" mindset.

 

Second, continued buying from mainland Chinese buyers. According to Midland Realty, in February this year, mainland buyers (identified by English spelling of names) registered 1,365 transactions in Hong Kong's primary and secondary residential markets, up about 10.4% month-on-month, marking the 12th consecutive month above the 1,000-level. The total value reached HK$15.58 billion, surging 23.1% month-on-month, with over 60% of that amount going into first-hand properties, indicating mainland buyers' purchasing power is concentrated in the new home market.

 

Third, global capital is clearly favoring Hong Kong. Amid tensions in the Middle East, several international investment banks have issued reports stating that Hong Kong—leveraging its status as an international financial hub, rule-of-law environment, and backing of mainland China—has become a top safe haven for global asset allocation. Some Middle Eastern capital and family offices are using Hong Kong to allocate Asia-Pacific assets, driving demand for luxury homes and prime commercial properties. J.P. Morgan Private Bank noted in its report that Hong Kong real estate is gradually moving from a correction phase to a recovery, and has doubled its 2025 price forecast from an original 5–7% increase to 10–15%.

 

Behind the New Wave of Price Rises: Multiple Factors at Play

According to comprehensive market analysis, the latest upswing in Hong Kong’s property market is supported by a range of positive factors.

 

First, geopolitical shifts have created opportunities. Amid major turmoil in the Middle East, global capital is urgently seeking safe-haven assets. Hong Kong stands out due to its stable and secure environment. Although global economic uncertainty continues to rise, the local market has remained largely unaffected and has instead become a preferred risk-averse choice. Surveyor Yiu Ching-ying, in a media interview, noted that six core dimensions—interest rates, policies, land scarcity, capital flows, macroeconomics, and geopolitics—together form Hong Kong’s "moat." The property market is currently at a critical stage of gradual recovery and consolidation.

 

Second, adjustments to Hong Kong’s property policies have given a strong boost to the recovery. In 2024, the government fully "removed the cooling measures," abolishing the Buyer’s Stamp Duty (BSD), Special Stamp Duty (SSD), and New Residential Stamp Duty (NRSD), while unifying property transactions under the second-tier Ad Valorem Stamp Duty (AVD) rate. This significantly lowered the entry barrier for non-local residents and investors. The 2025 Budget further relaxed restrictions: stamp duty for properties valued at HK$4 million or below was reduced to just HK$100, benefiting about 15% of all transactions and stimulating first-time buyer demand.

 

Third, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) eased loan-to-value ratios and abolished stress tests, lowering financing costs. Mortgage rates have currently fallen to around 3.25–3.5%, far below previous peaks, making homeownership more affordable. The phenomenon of "buying being cheaper than renting" is becoming increasingly common, prompting tenants to turn into buyers.

 

On the supply side, conditions are also favorable. The number of newly launched primary units has declined, inventories are being gradually absorbed, and developer confidence is returning, leading to active project launches and brisk transactions.

 

Other contributing factors include: an improving interest rate environment, with global rate cuts reducing borrowing costs; land scarcity ensuring long-term value retention, particularly in university districts, rail network catchment areas, and top-tier luxury properties; talent admission schemes driving continued population growth and supporting housing demand; and on the macroeconomic front, a recovering financial sector, active IPO market, and some liquidity shifting toward real estate.

 

Major Banks Bullish on 2026 Housing Outlook

Looking ahead to Hong Kong’s property market in 2026, bullish voices are growing louder.

 

Shih Wing-ching, founder of Centaline Group, predicted as early as November 2025 that the current upswing in Hong Kong property could last six years, with cumulative gains reaching 85%. By February 2026, he further commented that even if the government "tightens" stamp duty on luxury homes, it would not dampen the upward momentum. He raised his 2026 price growth forecast from 15% to about 20%.

 

Wong Kin-ip, chairman of Midland Holdings, noted that the property market has started the year strongly. He expects a "steady and stable rise" throughout the year, with residential properties likely to see two consecutive years of "both price and volume growth." He forecasts full-year price growth of over 10%, which would be the largest annual increase in nine years. He is particularly optimistic about small-to-medium units and new large-unit developments.

 

Chan Hiu-ho, head of research at Ricacorp Properties, analyzed that the completion volume of private residential units is expected to fall another 8% year-on-year. With three consecutive years of declining supply, coupled with relatively low interest rates, a stable financial market, and sustained purchasing power, he expects Hong Kong property prices to record a 15% increase for the year. On the rental market, the vacancy rate has fallen back to 4.3%, reflecting strong rental demand, and he sees rental prices rising 7.5% over the year.

 

Morgan Stanley is bullish on Hong Kong’s property market this year, forecasting residential prices will rise 10% year-on-year and rents 5%, officially entering an upward cycle. This view is based on an influx of capital from mainland China (transaction volumes in the first two months surged 91% year-on-year), the "positive carry" effect driven by high rental yields, and structural demand fueled by talent admission schemes.

 

Citigroup is also optimistic, raising its 2026 price growth forecast to 8% and expecting a long-term upward cycle lasting five to seven years. The bank’s analysis points to the interest rate cut cycle, supply scarcity, and talent policies as the main drivers of the property upswing. Among Hong Kong developers, Citi prefers Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016.HK), Sino Land (0083.HK), Henderson Land Development (0012.HK), and CK Asset Holdings (1113.HK).

 

In summary, the current spring market in Hong Kong real estate is not just a rebound in residential prices and transaction volumes, but a direct reflection of the return of both confidence and capital. The fact that global funds are favoring Hong Kong underscores its unique value as an international financial hub and Asia-Pacific financial gateway. Supported by favorable factors such as policy backing, economic recovery, and external opportunities, Hong Kong’s property market is expected to sustain its positive momentum, offering new opportunities for both investors and homebuyers.

 

Kai Tak Development

Image caption: The Kai Tak Development Area has been a key source of new property supply in Hong Kong in recent years, featuring MTR-accessible locations, sea-view units, and luxury positioning. It is one of the most sought-after districts for mainland Chinese and overseas buyers.

 

 

From Overseas Property Consultant to Hong Kong Property Ambassador:

An Estate Agent’s "Glamorous Turnaround"

From last year to this year, Hong Kong’s “spring market” has arrived rapidly and with remarkable force. The property price index has rebounded for several consecutive months, and transaction volumes have multiplied several times over compared to the post-pandemic trough. Behind this market surge, aside from local end-users, there is also a quietly inflowing stream of global capital. Nelson Li, Regional Director of IQI Hong Kong, is one of the most perceptive early birds riding this wave of funds. His own experience shows that global capital is voting with its feet, unanimously bullish on Hong Kong’s property market prospects.

 

Image caption: Nelson Li previously helped Hongkongers buy properties in the Greater Bay Area and Southeast Asia. Now, he uses the connections accumulated there to bring overseas clients to buy homes in Hong Kong. (Photo by Hong Kong Commercial Daily reporter Su Shang)

 

For the past ten years or so, Nelson Li focused mainly on “outbound sales”—helping Hong Kong people buy properties in the Greater Bay Area and Southeast Asia. Starting in 2015, he first specialized in school-district apartments and commercial properties in the Greater Bay Area. Later, his reach extended to Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia. Before the pandemic, sales were encouraging, and his team even grew to several hundred people. Back then, he liked to jokingly call himself a “Belt and Road salesman.” Little did he expect that fortunes would reverse so quickly. After the Hong Kong SAR government removed all “cooling measures” for foreigners buying property in early 2024, Hong Kong properties suddenly became highly sought-after. Adapting to the flow of capital, he made a decisive pivot, leveraging the connections he had built in the Greater Bay Area and Southeast Asia to bring overseas clients to buy homes in Hong Kong. The former “overseas property consultant” has now transformed into a “Hong Kong property ambassador.”

 

"Following the Money" is the Golden Rule

“Follow the money—that’s the most basic survival rule in real estate,” Nelson Li told a Hong Kong Commercial Daily reporter. Relatively speaking, Hong Kong’s property market was at a “low tide” within the Asia-Pacific region at the time. With the U.S. dollar persistently weak, rising expectations of China’s economic recovery, and the prospect of continued interest rate cuts, global capital began turning its attention back to Hong Kong. The client list in his hands—ranging from Chinese businessmen and retirees in Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia to entrepreneurs in the Greater Bay Area—all wanted to “bottom-fish” in Hong Kong.

 

The preferences of these overseas buyers are surprisingly consistent and quite interesting. Li summarized three major tendencies:

 

First, they favor new properties—the newer, the better. Ideally, units that are about to be completed or are ready for immediate occupancy, to avoid the hassle of a long wait.

 

Second, they prefer school-net properties. Kai Tak, Ho Man Tin—these prestigious school catchment areas are like magnets. Many Southeast Asian clients’ eyes light up at the mention, saying they want to give their children a “Hong Kong education boost.”

 

Third, they are drawn to areas with distinctive Hong Kong character. Discovery Bay, for example, with its low-density, sea-view houses, and clubhouse amenities, gives them a sense of “this is the real Hong Kong lifestyle.”

 

Li himself recalled with a laugh: once he brought a Malaysian client to view a property in Discovery Bay. Standing on the balcony overlooking Tolo Harbour, the client got so excited that he shouted in a mixture of Cantonese and Malay, “This place has better feng shui than the Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur!” He decided on the spot to secure two units. Another mainland Chinese client came specifically for the “international school cluster” around a new Kai Tak project. When signing the contract, he deliberately wore traditional Chinese tangzhuang attire, exclaiming that he wanted to “follow local customs.”

 

Once a "Belt and Road" Trailblazer

Nelson Li’s transformation may sound smooth, but behind it lies a solid foundation built over nearly 40 years in the banking industry. He started working at a bank in 1976, beginning at the most junior level. Later, he moved to another bank and, within just a few years, propelled its mortgage business from a double-digit market ranking to the top five. Colleagues often say he is “sensitive to numbers but even more sensitive to people”—clients felt at ease entrusting him with million-dollar loans the moment they met him.

 

In 2017, he set up his own company focusing on the Malaysian market. At the time, many in the industry looked on with skepticism, thinking it was far-fetched for a Hongkonger to sell properties in Malaysia. Yet within a few short years, the projects he represented sold like hotcakes.

 

“Back then, we were the trailblazers of the Belt and Road Initiative,” Li recalls. His team didn’t just sell homes; they provided a full suite of services, including arranging mortgages, opening bank accounts, and enrolling clients’ children in schools. The connections he had accumulated in the banking world were now fully monetized. After Malaysia launched its “Malaysia My Second Home” program, many Hongkongers bought properties there for their children’s education or retirement. Li simply reverse-engineered that same attentive service.

 

Bringing the "One-Stop Service" Back to Hong Kong

Now that the tide has turned, he has brought that same “one-stop service” back to Hong Kong, without changing a thing. When the Hong Kong property market was sluggish after the pandemic, he had already begun monitoring the movements of overseas buyers. As prices started rebounding in 2024, he fully reactivated his networks in the Greater Bay Area and Southeast Asia. “Before, Hongkongers were going overseas to buy at the bottom. Now, overseas buyers are coming to Hong Kong to buy at the bottom. The roles have reversed, but the business model is essentially the same,” he says casually. Behind the ease, however, is a team working day and night to revise presentations, translate property brochures, and arrange virtual viewings and site inspections.

 

Now in his 50th year of working life, Li’s company has become a kind of “bridge” connecting global capital. He expects the share of overseas buyers in Hong Kong property transactions to rise further this year, especially funds from Southeast Asia and the Greater Bay Area. “Hong Kong’s property market has the rule of law, its status as an international financial center, and Asia’s most transparent transaction system—these are all hard power!” he laughs. He adds that his biggest challenge now is not finding clients, but reminding them: “Although Hong Kong properties may look cheap, they are not zero risk,” and urging them to allocate rationally.

 

A Mirror of Hong Kong’s Vitality

That global capital favors Hong Kong is nothing new. But Nelson Li’s story of a “glamorous turnaround” with his clients serves as a vivid mirror, reflecting the true source of Hong Kong’s property market vitality—not just policies or speculators, but a group of sharp-sensed, risk-taking professionals who dare to transform. They once took Hongkongers’ money out into the world; now they are bringing the world’s money back in.

 

A duck knows first when the spring river warms. Will the spring market in Hong Kong residential property evolve into a full-blown boom? “Where the money flows, we follow!” Li’s answer is simple: “As long as Hong Kong continues to maintain its unique appeal, the property market here will always have a bright future.”