The primary real estate product remains residential properties. Developments in the first half of 2026 are expected to surpass that of the first half of 2025. While the total number of units for the year is projected to be lower than in 2025, the value is expected to be higher. A slight improvement is anticipated in the second half of 2026.

 

Dr. Sopon Pornchokchai, President, Agency for Real Estate Affairs (www.area.co.th) stated that as of mid-2026, there will still be 3,098 residential projects open for sale in Bangkok and its surrounding areas. Of these, 2,670 projects still have more than 20 units for sale, indicating that these projects are currently conducting normal sales and marketing activities.

 

During the first half of 2026, six projects experienced sales halts, totaling 4,136 units with a combined value of Baht 23.939 billion (USD 725 million). This indicates that the housing markets in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region have not yet been severely damaged by the slow economic growth, as the number of affected projects remains low. In the second half of 2025, eight projects experienced sales halts, totaling 3,964 units and valued at Baht 17.880 billion (USD 542 million). This shows that the number of projects experiencing difficulties over the past year has not yet reached a crisis level, suggesting the housing market has not yet be as worsening as expected.

 

Generally, projects were stalled with the following details:

• Approximately one-third (31%) are due to projects failing to pass an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).
• Approximately 22% of sales are due to the product design not being suitable for the market and location.
• 19% stopped because financial institutions were unwilling to provide loans.
• 7 % because the location is not suitable for development, etc.

 

 

Dr. Sopon stated that in the first six months of 2026, the majority of new projects launched in  Bangkok Metropolitan Region (95%) were residential properties, with the remainder being commercial and industrial projects. Residential projects totaled 97, a decrease of 18 projects or -15.7 % compared to the first six months of 2025 (115 projects). However, in the first six months of 2026, the total number of units sold increased by 1,561 units or 10.1% (15,484 units in the first six months of 2025). The total project value in the first six months of 2026 was Baht 152.742 billion (USD 4.689 billion), an increase of Baht 41.512 billion or 37.3% (Baht 110,230 billion in the first six months of 2025).

 

This case indicates that:

• The size of new project launches is increasing. In 2026, an average residential project will have approximately 176 units (17,045 units from 97 projects), compared to 135 units per project in 2025 (15,484 units from 115 projects). This is because an exceptionally high number of condominium launches occurred in 2026, resulting in a higher number of units per project for sale than usual.
• The increase in the average price from Baht 7.172 million (USD 217,333) per unit in 2025 to Baht 8.906 million (USD 269,879) in 2026 indicates that housing prices have risen, resulting in lower sales of lower-priced properties and decreased purchasing power for these goods.

 

Dr. Sopon predicts that in 2026, the total number of new residential units launched will be 35,795 units, less than the 41,490 units launched in 2025, representing a decrease of 13.7%. However, the development value in 2026 is expected to be higher than in 2025, increasing from Baht 290.615 billion (USD 8.807 billion) to Baht 320.758 billion (USD 9,720 billion), or a 10.4% increase, due to the higher average price per unit.

 

In the future, building mid-range, relatively cheap, and mid-range housing will likely be difficult because the purchasing power of homebuyers has decreased significantly due to the economic downturn. This excludes low-cost condominiums, such as those under Baht 1.5 million (Baht 45,455), which are supported by the Board of Investment, but even then, only a few developers are able to build such affordable housing. Conversely, high-end housing for the premium market can still sell reasonably well because it has been less affected by the economic downturn.

 

In the first half of 2026, a total of 26,780 units were sold, with 14,439 units (53.9% of all units sold) being condominiums, totaling Baht 70.407 billion or USD 2.134 billion (46.8%). This was followed by townhouses, with 6,820 units (25.5%) sold for a total value of Baht 21.362 billion or USD 647 million (14.2%), and single-family homes, with 3,393 units (12.7%) sold for a total value of Baht 46.313 billion, or 30.8% of the total sales value in the first half of 2026.

 

In 2025, the total number of residential units sold by developers for the entire year was 50,472. However, in the first half of this year, only 26,780 units were sold. Dr. Sopon predicts that by 2026, total sales will reach approximately 57,000 units, exceeding last year's figure.   This indicates that the existing residential inventory is being absorbed gradually. The decrease in new residential launches, while suggesting market contraction, also indicates the absence of a bubble, meaning there is no likelihood of a bubble bursting.

 

As of mid- 2026, there are still 210,112 unsold residential units, a massive number that would take another 49.5 months to sell (assuming no new projects are launched). The largest unsold inventory is not condominiums, but rather townhouses, totaling 68,831 units (32.8%), followed by condominiums with 61,543 units (29.3%), and single-family homes with 51,739 units (24.6%). This indicates that condominiums sell well because they are easy to live in and rent out.

 

In the second half of 2026, Dr. Sopon believes the situation will be better than the first half of the year. Typically, the second half sees a surge in new project launches, and currently there are 399 projects awaiting launch. However, not all of them may be launched due to the less-than-optimal market conditions. The most anticipated type of housing is single-family homes with 136 projects (34%), followed by condominiums with 130 projects (33%), and townhouses with 115 projects (29%). The remainder consists of other types of residential properties.

 

If the country's economy improved, the real estate market should recover well. However, the Thai economy is expected to remain stagnant, so housing and other real estate development are not as vibrant as expected. The past trend of developing up to 100,000 new housing units per year in Bangkok and its surrounding areas is unlikely to be replicated in the future.